Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 19.420704 21.113420 22.982448 25.218573 27.847589 30.874791 34.676271
2024-10-27 17.451311 19.808625 22.619013 26.294592 31.102570 37.382798 46.603053
2024-11-03 15.550619 18.173301 21.471400 26.078018 32.635838 42.189553 58.516443
2024-11-10 14.258725 17.051397 20.717703 26.131153 34.444340 47.906433 75.051362
2024-11-17 13.305504 16.215223 20.175277 26.312087 36.414601 54.579223 98.693283
2024-11-24 12.526830 15.505927 19.684418 26.436337 38.275306 61.854212 132.472222
2024-12-01 11.788303 14.766903 19.043486 26.188367 39.390989 68.192915 175.446988
2024-12-08 11.229005 14.224363 18.621238 26.208764 40.989968 76.559184 251.970228
2024-12-15 10.686818 13.657354 18.095284 25.957977 41.972051 84.063351 368.106213
2024-12-22 10.213183 13.153469 17.615255 25.710171 42.893498 92.179356 589.766341
2024-12-29 9.801113 12.711581 17.191434 25.500222 43.848252 101.360601 1145.219645
2025-01-05 9.446408 12.332560 16.835236 25.365188 44.951870 112.374831 3930.350127
2025-01-12 9.036341 11.850726 16.282475 24.803471 44.924963 119.299135 298323.974137
2025-01-19 8.927736 11.830321 16.500168 25.797363 49.297896 154.328102 NaN
2025-01-26 8.627603 11.489430 16.141604 25.563514 50.219468 172.945729 NaN
2025-02-02 8.393904 11.241550 15.925907 25.603504 51.998272 203.205033 NaN
2025-02-09 8.196982 11.041779 15.779213 25.772884 54.277963 247.869688 NaN
2025-02-16 8.006959 10.842864 15.618724 25.890289 56.469925 306.395883 NaN
2025-02-23 7.782379 10.576266 15.317197 25.649669 57.350683 357.448061 NaN
2025-03-02 7.606435 10.382110 15.136158 25.668801 59.243122 452.374288 NaN
2025-03-09 7.409101 10.143675 14.858196 25.426373 60.067752 545.325177 NaN
2025-03-16 7.224163 9.918681 14.592796 25.186913 60.859067 669.948957 NaN
2025-03-23 7.054357 9.712711 14.352163 24.984040 61.772362 856.373847 NaN